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December 09, 2003

That can't be done!

One of the first things that someone will say about a forecast is that "It won't work!" or "It can't be done that way!" That's often a fair criticism.

But here's how to look at it like a futurist: take the LeapPad Plus Writing toy mentioned in the previous entry, and the assertion that it can automate education. If your immediate reaction is that it can't do that, then ask the question/s of "What would have to happen so that it could happen?" This is one of those questions that can be most effectively answered in a group setting because it's a funny thing how people who aren't you can see things you can't. if you keep pushing that question, it's amazing how different the future can look from what you were expecting. It's not asking for wild-eyed thinking as much as it's asking for logical thinking.

If this happens, then what else happens? If one of those consequences happens, then what will happen because of that? Keep pushing the boundaries out and see where it takes you and your future.

The purpose of this exercise is not to "predict" exactly what will happen. It is to get your mind accustomed to thinking into a series of alternative consequences. The more you are able to do that, the less the future will surprise you because there's both the chance that you've already considered that, or you become used to the idea of the future not being what it used to be.

Posted by dmzach

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