I'm speaking in Copenhagen, Denmark on September 27th at ERA05, (no, not a retro feminist convention) a design convergence conference. Bringing together designers of Interiors, Industrials and Graphics, this conference is looking at the both the growing influence of design and its future. I've been asked to speak on "Are we closing our eyes to the future?" Short answer: No, just the opposite. Long answer: after I give the talk, I'll see about posting some of it here. For more info on the conference: www.era05.com.
But before I get to Denmark, I'm flying off to Finland with my brother for a short vacation and to visit a friend of his. If anyone needs to contact me, try email, because I'm not using a phone over there and will not be checking voice mail.
A Flash project looking at the future of the news media from the Museum of Media History in Tampa Bay, FL. I don't know much about it, but it's a rather intriguing history and future of the fourth estate. Epic 2015 is an entertaining and perhaps viable forecast. I'll let you know in 2016 if it was accurate.
In mid-June I attended the American Chesterton Society's three day conference held annually at the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, MN. Dale Ahlquist, the executive director of the society, is not only one of the funniest people I've met in a long time, he's an exceptionally good speaker.
I also had the good fortune to begin a friendship with Stratford Caldecott, who was one of the other speakers and in (not just) my opinion, one of the most intriguing. (Order tapes here) When not speaking at the conference, he and his wife are Directors of the Chesterton Institute for Faith and Culture in Oxford and edit Second Spring: An International Journal of Faith & Culture.
For those of you not drawn towards the deeper end of the pool in Catholic thought, this may not be of interest. But if you want to play with some ideas from the great mind of G. K. Chesterton, you can dive deep here, and you might even find that the water's just fine.
From their "about us" page:
Chesterton's call for a deepened moral and social imagination speaks loudly to the cultural crises of our own time. His vision was compelling partly because of its coherence: he recognized that heart and hearth, work and worth, were of a piece. Human flourishing was found in families, human wholeness in holiness. The Institute, through its publications, conferences, seminars, promotion of sound public policy and in co-operation with affiliated groups, offers a rediscovery of that distinct moral tradition. It proposes, with Wendell Berry, that our place of safety can only be the community, "and not just one community, but many of them everywhere, upon [which] depends all that we still claim to value: freedom, dignity, health, mutual help and affection."
The Institute is distinct from the many national Chesterton Societies that exist in America, England and around the globe. These societies exist to foster an interest in the man and his work. The Institute supports them in this task where it can, but its own purpose is one of understanding, of evangelising, of persuading, of converting culture. In that its work must always be broader even than Chesterton himself. Ultimately, to be Chestertonian is to be interested less in the man than in the truths he articulated, and the spirit he represents.
The Institute aims to recover and revive the fullness of what it means to be a Catholic intellectual in today's world, and it takes G.K. Chesterton as a representative of this fullness. The Christian humanism fostered by the Institute is expressed in speaking and writing, through conferences and a range of publications, including journals such as The Chesterton Review and Second Spring. Particular projects of the Institute are concerned with the Sane Economy, Christian Reunion and Jewish-Christian Dialogue, Education and Liberty, the New Age Movement, the Far East, Bioethics, family-friendly Tax Reform, and a study of national cultures in, for example, Ireland and Poland.
Maybe we're about to radically change the operating system of the human condition. If so, then this would be a really good time to make backups of our civilization. Bruce Sterling
While I'm on the topic of defending Western Civ, it might also be a point to suggest this website The Museum of Unworkable Devices. I never took Physics, but this is a well explained site on why those perpetual motion devices and the like just don't work.
There's this famous story of a friend visiting Thomas Edison while he was in the midst of trying (and failing) to invent the light bulb. The experiment at the time of course failed and his friend was quoted as saying something like, "Well, I guess you've failed!" Edison shot back with, "No, I just found one more way it won't work."
For that reason, I suppose that a site devoted to unworkable devices is there for the purpose of inspiring the future Edisons who would see these sorts of things as just one more way it won't work on the way to ways they will.
Many societies have the freedom to succeed. We go a step better. We have the freedom to fail, and then get back up and try again.
When you know what will succeed, you know the future. The problem with that attitude is that the future is really mostly unknown and in places where it is known, it's also a place where there isn't room for error, experimentation and trying something new. If I have a choice, I'll take the place where the future is unknown, but the people there have a faith in themselves, in God and in their own abilities to solve any problem thrown in their path. Those people are the real futurists.
OK, I have no reason to suggest Think Geek other than for the simple and pure reason that I love this shop. Having always been a geek (albeit perhaps a bit more eloquent than the average geek) this website is always a good source for any cool new gadget or watch or t-shirt. When geekdom gets tough, the geeks go shopping?
Just in case you understand that now might be a really good time to be able to defend the achievements of Western Civilization, here's a site, Squashed Philosophers, that offers quick summaries of the best of Western thought.
I have often lamented in my talks that most of us don't have any sense of "Western apologetics" so we can actually learn to understand and defend from whence we came. Sure, we like things like free speech, the rights of man and our desire to understand the universe, but how many can actually defend those things when confronted by those who attack?
As Mark Twain once suggested, "those who do not read good books have no advantage over those who can not."
This site, Trailers of Historically Significant Movies is a segment of the Digital History website. If you don't have time to rewatch all those movies, here are the quickie versions. Some of the links didn't work, but it is a bit of a treat to see some of these again for the first time.
I've had to re-edit my entry on design*sponge, which is a rather nice site giving a daily dose of cool new consumer products. Then last week two people wrote to me explaining that Grace Bonney, aka design*sponge is a bit more than meets the eye. In a New York Times article (Hot off the Web: Gossip and Guidance, January 27, 2005) she acknowledged to them that she works for a PR firm and sometimes writes on her blog about client products without disclosing she's paid to promote them.
Now that I know it's really a catalog, I still enjoy it, but like a lot of things in modern times, I no longer really trust it.
Why don't more people understand that the freedom to trust is one of our most important freedoms?
This chick is cool. Her name is R�gine Debatty, she looks all of early 20something, is Belgian, studied Classics (yeah!) and works in Italy as a new media consultant, after having such jobs as a go-go dancer, secretary and a "promo girl" in a mall. So glad the tyranny of the resume doesn't have the same death grip there as it does here. This is one of my absolute favorite blogs.
A lot of people call themselves futurist and really aren't. I don't know what title she calls herself, but I think she's one of the most interesting futurists out there. The website address isn't the same as the name of her blog though. It's called Near, near future but the address is www.we-make-money-not-art.com/.
Note the index at the top of her page. When she makes new entries, that category word grows bigger. Probably not a new concept to those in design, but probably new to most of you.
The Cool Hunter is another one. If I find many more of them, they're not going to be cool anymore.
Josh Spear: The Pulse of Cool is another cool hunting site. I have no idea which one came first. Don't really care either. I just like them and appreciate it when someone does primary research before I have to.
Check out this Infinite Illustration at ZoomQuilt2
I'm not sure what it's good for, but I don't care, it's fascinating and that good enough for a few minutes of your curiosity webtime. Depending on how you move your cursor, the illustration will zoom in or zoom out, perhaps forever?
In an article on the How Design website, author Dan Pink is interviewed on his recently published book, A Whole New Mind. Pink explains in this interview, Follow your Heart, why it's Designers in particular who have the cluster of skills we're needing for the economy (and culture) now. He suggests six skills sets: Design, Story, Symphony, Empathy, Play and Meaning. I ordered the book from 800-CEO-READ, and plan to start reading next week while on the road. From what I've gathered from reading various reviews (and e-chatting with Dan) this is a book that I strongly agree with and recommend.
I don't know exactly why I'm on this cool kick, but perhaps it has to do with my research on the battle between change and tradition. Fads have sped up even more to my observation. The Pulse of Cool is another one of the sites where cool people suggest their picks so others can pick up on those things, make them popular and well, ultimately no longer cool. Cool has to have some sense of exclusivity and being early. These lists are starting to feed on themselves and we may evolve to the point where cool won't be cool anymore. Mmmmm, not cooooool.
GullibleInfo is a site full of often familiar statistics. Familiar and wrong. None of the statistics/statements on GullibleInfo are true.
In the words of the reporter Gregg Easterbrook, "Torture numbers and they will confess to anything."
Want to be just like everyone else (and why should you be any different from everyone else?) then click here for Alexa's top viewed sites. This is a ranking each day of the most viewed sites on the Internet as visited by Alexa toolbar users.
Important caveats are this is a selected base and for instance, don't include Mac users such as myself. So, why am I even writing about this? Good question. If anyone knows of a less selective base of ranking of website visits, I'm all eyes. I do think that rankings like this are somewhat revealing in terms of how our opinions and "facts" are formulated.
This was found as a link off of the Future Past site. Fabio Femin�'s Fantascience site is in Italian, but there's a button for using Babblefish translation for the site. Again, like Future Past, this has a great collection of old futuristic images.
Let's hear it for going back to the future! This site, Future Past, is a rather beautiful exploration of how we used to look forward. There's lots here and it's fun to see how much we've changed the ways we thought we would be changing. The best use of this site is to consider how often we change our notion of what a good future should be. The future isn't what it used to be.
Reminds me of this quote from G. K. Chesterton, "Progress should mean that we are always changing the world to suit the vision. Progress does mean (just now) that we are always changing the vision."
Word count tells how often words are used in the English language. It uses some database in England and not in the US. Apparently some people believe that the English invented the language of English. Yeah, whatever.
Anyway, it's a neat interface and can reveal something of what we think about, via our use of words. I'm not sure how it is updated, or if it is updated, but if it was, I suspect it would be rather revealing of what catches our attention.
For example, here are a few words with their rankings of use compared to other words.
45651 futurist (not so popular and probably dropping by the day)
5687 historian (how many times more used is this than futurist?)
1989 tradition
272 change (seems to be a word used obsessively)
5996 continuity
4021 uncertainty
15826 visionary (can't really call this an overused term)
9547 idiot (this is an underused term in my opinion)
5901 sacred
4156 prayer
5723 sin
14925 immoral
1696 freedom
4838 innovation
765 design (I'll bet this word has climbed a lot in recent years.)
376 god (they didn't capitalize this, so I guess I won't either.)
4802 devil
4803 feminist (Don't blame me. In rank, one just followed the other!)
1036 traditional
2481 radical
And the list goes on and on and on.
I just found 'boards and I think this is cool. It's a clearinghouse of sorts for cutting edge video: adverts, short film, music video and animations.
I keep trying to convince audiences and those dealing with real estate/architecture/design that our concepts of location and workplaces are going to have to change. When you start really paying attention to what youngsters are paying attention to, along with the almost unbelievable skills of graphic/video designers, you have to ask this question: why would a young person (say, 10 years from now) want to work, live or play in a traditional, reality-anchored place? Think of how bored a lot of people are today and their constant need to be upgraded via thrills, experiences, relationships, etc. At the same time, think of all the technology that is both here and soon to be coming (check in the research labs for developments that are coming soon) that are being developed to present those experiences and you get some convincing evidence that reality is going to get a lot of competition from some really good alternatives.
I'm not saying this is a good thing. I am saying that if you're not thinking about this now and what your responses are, you can't really blame others when it leaves you behind or leaves you whining "why didn't someone warn me about this?" Consider yourself warned.
Josh Rubin: Coolhunting is a site dedicated to stuff from the intersection of design, culture and technology. A tag team approach (Josh as the centerpoint editor) of a bunch of people looking for what's cool today.
Coolhunting as a broader category is something that's getting big in econo-culture - and it's not necessarily a good thing. Advertising is so pervasive that more and more people, especially youngsters just tune it out. To compensate and capture, marketers use "coolhunters" to find out what's cool and more importantly, who's cool and then co-opting those cool kids by essentially branding them.
No, not cattle branding (though I'm not completely sure) but by giving those coolsters stuff that they then use to be cool (Which I suspect in the long run is not cool.) and allow others (who are obviously less cool) to watch and emulate.
And to think that some think that the world has grown more cynical?
Popgadget is defined as Personal tech for women. Similar to Engadget and Gizmodo, but with, uh, a feminine touch. Some studies show that women buy a lot of technology, but I'm still left with the question of what would all those angry people at Harvard have to say about this sort of a distinction? Still, I do like to see efforts to expand the influence on design. Everyone should be a designer.
Engadget is rather similar to Gizmodo, another blog that follows tech developments.
Gizmodo is one of those weblogs that monitor mostly electronic stuff on the cutting or bleeding edge.
Real futurists have children. - Bruce Sterling
In an interview a few years ago, he said that and something along the lines of most futurists get ideas that start inside their heads, stay inside their heads and never get challenged by outside reality. As any parent can tell you, children challenge your concepts of reality, parenting and certainly what the future will be.
This is especially true in terms of your out of the gate expectations you had for your children compared to the eventual future they unfold. As I have no kids, I do question how good of a futurist I can really be. Then again, having some distance provides some perspective. It's one thing to listen to people like me, but check with your friends and check with your kids. The real future is somewhere in all of those conversations.
Bruce Sterling is one of the top "cyberpunk" science fiction writers and has lots to say about our world today. Reason Magazine has an interesting interview with him. Cybergreen: Bruce Sterling on media, design, fiction, and the future.
Reason Magazine (reason.com) has an interesting article, Multitudes In the Valley of Decision about too many choices. It seems to suggest that when there are too many choices, sometimes the choice is not to choose at all. We all want choices, but can you have too many choices? How would we rationally pull back from this affluenza of unlimited options?
They cite an example of people being offered 6 different jams to try and 30% of those people bought one of them with a $1 off coupon. When they were offered the same coupon after being 26 different jams to sample, only 3% bought a jam.
So how does this translate into the broader society? In my talks, I suggest that there is absolutely nothing in the life of a young adult that isn't a choice now. They know they can choose to change their parents, siblings, race, gender, religion, sexual preference, friends, style, school, career, city, interests, lifestyle, anything. Does that same choice overload presented in the article translate into these types of things? How much of this is the result of traditions not being able to defend themselves?
As well, there's a major part of the economy that's ready to tell you that no matter which choice you've made, it's wrong. Whatever you've chosen, chances are there's an upgrade out there that you'd obviously be a fool to miss out on.
How does a young person develop a sense of satisfaction when there's not much out there to reinforce that the choice made is correct and continual barrages that tell you to choose something else?
I once read an article about the sixties and the youth revolt, when they questioned everything and eventually our parents (and the culture) went along with what they demanded. The article concluded that what we had thought was our parents wisdom was actually their exhaustion.
How much of modernity is the result of seeing the wisdom in new ideas and how much the result of exhaustion in defending the old ones? How many people do you know who either only like new things or only like old things?
Progress is not being open to new things and rejecting old things. It is when we have the ability to choose between them.
Check out this article. Lie-detector glasses offer peek at future of security It's about a voice technology that tells if you're speaking true. What appears to be new and significant is that the sensors can be embedded into a pair of sunglasses, flashing for the wearer what's the fact or fiction of the person they're looking at. Shown at the latest CES in Las Vegas, it gives a green, yellow or red LED for true, maybe or false.
They also have a software program for a Pocket PC that links into your phone and tells you if the person you're listening to is in love with you. A portable Love Detector.
So, questions: Do you have a right to lie outside of a courtroom? Do you have a right to privacy regarding your feelings? Is this Big Brother? What sort of damage can this do in the hands of someone's little brother?
I suspect there's no effective way to prevent people from trying to use of this sort of technology as well as the future availability of this stuff in small, portable (and concealable) devices. More than likely, we'll see the development of devices to both detect them and if necessary, defeat them. When you have smarter mice (rats?) you have to build smarter mouse traps.
Modern philosophies are considered modern in the sense that the great men of the past did not think of them. They thought of them; only they did not think much of them. - G. K. Chesterton.
[Once again, as I work to make some renewed sense of this modern world, I find that Chesterton is a source of some light. The world still doesn't make all that much sense, but there's comfort to be gained by learning from the likes of Chesterton that making sense is not the world's responsibility. It has more important things to do. -DMZ]
The act of defending any of the cardinal virtues has today all the exhilaration of a vice. - G. K. Chesterton
I'm rereading G. K. Chesterton's book, Orthodoxy. It's a good book and he's a great writer. I found this passage tonight.
"Tradition means giving votes to the most obscure of all classes, our ancestors. It is the democracy of the dead. Tradition refuses to submit to the small and the arrogant oligarchy of those who merely happen to be walking about. All democrats object to men being disqualified by the accident of birth; tradition objects to their being disqualified by the accident of death."
On the page before that, he wrote, "It is obvious that tradition is only democracy extended through time."
As a futurist, as well as just a guy living in 2003, I am continually amazed at how little respect there is given to the past, and by that same measure, how much credibility is given to the future - and how much credibility is given to people who imagine a future that is mostly an extension of their own imagination, disconnected from any continuity with all of those who made the past.
I read a lot more books about history than I read about the future. Although I don't believe that our ancestors were always right, they were also not idiots and virtually all of the good that we have around us is because very smart people long since passed made commitments to see that something good would endure. As well, I certainly don't think we are smart enough, let alone wise enough to be able to build a future only from contemporary ingredients. Those from the past paid too high a price to have us discard it without first trying to know it.
This is not to say that we must anchor ourselves to the past. I do believe in progress and the notion of progress requires us to understand that some things from the past must be discarded and sometimes even destroyed. Progress also requires us to study the past and to preserve, protect and defend that which has stood the test of time.
Progress is our ability to choose between change and tradition.
Someone has just raised the question (please add your questions via the "comments" link at the bottom of the articles so others can read them too) Can you really automated a teacher?
The best answer is: You can't automate the good ones.
The right question to ask here is "What defines a good teacher for the next five to ten years?" The essence of that answer hasn't changed since homework was invented. Successfully answering that may not guarantee long-term employment, but it certainly will produce good students.
One of the first things that someone will say about a forecast is that "It won't work!" or "It can't be done that way!" That's often a fair criticism.
But here's how to look at it like a futurist: take the LeapPad Plus Writing toy mentioned in the previous entry, and the assertion that it can automate education. If your immediate reaction is that it can't do that, then ask the question/s of "What would have to happen so that it could happen?" This is one of those questions that can be most effectively answered in a group setting because it's a funny thing how people who aren't you can see things you can't. if you keep pushing that question, it's amazing how different the future can look from what you were expecting. It's not asking for wild-eyed thinking as much as it's asking for logical thinking.
If this happens, then what else happens? If one of those consequences happens, then what will happen because of that? Keep pushing the boundaries out and see where it takes you and your future.
The purpose of this exercise is not to "predict" exactly what will happen. It is to get your mind accustomed to thinking into a series of alternative consequences. The more you are able to do that, the less the future will surprise you because there's both the chance that you've already considered that, or you become used to the idea of the future not being what it used to be.
A child starts school as a question mark and leaves it as a period.
- Neil Postman
So I'm looking at the Target ad supplement that came with the Sunday paper and I had to stop and think about the LeapPad Plus Writing learning system. (Search around their website for a variety of education automation tools.)
The ad copy reads: "Teaches fundamental reading skills plus writing and math." The LeapPad is on the lap of what appears to be a five year old, smiling little girl. It costs $48.89.
Why is she smiling? Probably because she knows this is another nail in the coffin of traditional education. Kids are smart at figuring things out like that. Adults are often too busy to notice when they're being outdated until it's too late.
Every occupation tends to have this sense that they should be immune from automation, especially if you go to all that trouble to get a degree that qualifies you to be in that occupation and prevents others w/o the degrees from doing the same.
Is all of education going to be automated? No, but it may very well mean that such basic tasks as, well, reading, writing and arithmetic can be better done by machines. And, it's not those HAL 9000 types that will kill you when you least expect it, it's the sort of machine that you can sit on your lap, that talks with you, that gives you some sort of recognition when you've done well and doesn't make you feel like an idiot when you've not done so well.
Of course any quick review of educational technology reveals almost unlimited examples of how technology has failed education, but it's undeniable to see that technology continues its invasion unabated.
A better question to ask here is, "How much of an educator's job can't be automated?" As I wrote about in a previous entry, it's that notion of the 80/20 rule. If 80% of what you do can be better done by a machine, what's your unique 20%? Another way of asking that is "What do teachers do best?" It's not passing on basic skills. Some of their uniqueness does come from knowing how to encourage a child (or an adult) why learning is both good and important. But a machine can also get a small child to respond well to a compliment or reward.
Another little angle on this sort of thing is that it may also be automating the role of a parent. Just as television often serves as a substitute for parent-child interaction (and wasn't there a study a few years back that suggested that more American children would rather have a TV than a Dad?) this is taking the concept of an attention holding TV and making it interactive and a "productive" use of a child's time. We keep getting busier and we keep coming up with technological solutions to fill the space that fast-paced lifestyle brings.
Am I against these sorts of toys/tools? Not at all. I think the better examples of this type of technology should play a bigger and bigger part of the educational process. We should just never use technology as a faster and cheaper way to get to the bottom line when we can use it to take us to the horizon. Will we use this sort of thing to downsize schools and downsize the role of good teachers? No, we shouldn't. Will parents use this so they don't have to be as involved with their children? That would be a bad idea too. But if this sort of thing can successfully encourage and support a child's love of learning, then by all means, put one under your Christmas tree.
Pessimism, when you get used to it, is just as agreeable as optimism. - Arnold Bennett
When smashing monuments, save the pedestals - they always come in handy. - Stanislaw Lec
No man who is in a hurry is quite civilized. - Will Durant
(One of my favorite authors. I don't know how I would think about the world without having absorbed many of his books. He taught me, from a distance via his writings, patience, perspective, and despite sometimes a lack of tangible evidence, hope for the future.)
Happiness? It is an illusion to think that more comfort means more happiness. Happiness comes of the capacity to feel deeply, to enjoy simply, to think freely, to risk life, to be needed. - Storm Jameson
What did posterity ever do for me? - Groucho Marx
OK, anyone who knows me, knows that I'm a bit of an uber-geek. (Why yes, i do have a 40gig iPod, why do you ask?) So when I learned about the Bushnell Instant Replay binoculars, I just had to share it. Although they'll cost $600, it's a very cool concept. It will instantly replay the last 30 seconds of whatever it was that you were looking at - and if you like, you can save it and download it to your computer. It also takes still photos.
I think that TIVO caused this, or rather allowed it first. From what TIVO does for TV, and Radio Shark does for radio, these new binoculars can do for sight. We get to see and hear it again.
Do keep in mind that the first version of just about anything doesn't work as well as later versions. (Of course my older brothers disagree with this theory) Just imagine what this technology will probably be like five or ten years from now. How likely is it that we'll have eyeglasses with this sort of technology built into it.
Imagine what this could do to the eye-witness industry. (Did you ever hear the phrase, "He lies like an eyewitness."?) Instead of the cops asking for a description, they'll just download your version of the scene. Then again, you should know by now that you can't trust digital images.
Where did the need for this technology come from? Oh, I don't know, how about an entire generation brought up with reboot buttons? The "start-over" generation as they are sometimes called gets to redo everything. From video games to marriages, they get to start over. This technology is just a logical extension from this attitude.
If you know you can see it or hear it again, do you think some people will not pay as close attention to things? When you can consider that there's so many things to pay attention to right now and that we can't devote too much bandwidth to anything, this may not be a cause of attention deficit disorder, but rather a treatment.
And here's another thing. There's a really looooong but enjoyable movie called the Until the End of the World with William Hurt. It's about video technology that can record what a person sees and then directly download it into the visual cortex of the brain. Hurt's character travels around the world recording things for his blind mother.
Are these binoculars one more step closer to that type of a future? Having the ability to carry with you technology that records what you see is one thing. But when you extend that technology and make it as convenient as a pair of eyeglasses, we may have taken the notion of home movies a bit farther than we thought possible.
If you think you would never use binoculars like that, (or the eyeglasses they might morph into) just think for a moment of the people you know who would use them. I have a difficult time imagining that we won't be seeing that sort of technology eventually.
Ignorance is the only sin that has its own natural and mortal consequences.
- Robert Heinlein.
The Metro Milwaukee Association of Commerce had this in their latest newsletter: "Motivation: If a pretty poster & a cute saying are all it takes to motivate you, you probably have a very easy job, the kind that robots will be doing soon." (Apparently this is from Despair, Inc.)
It's an odd thing that way too many people think that robots (and their little friend the computer chip) can't automate what they do. For most jobs - and careers - about 80% of what you do is probably better done by a machine. If not now, then 10 years from now.
If you want to stay employed and vitally involved, without the use of motivational posters, you have to figure out your unique 20%.
So ask yourself four questions (But don't answer them w/o doing a lot of reading about the not too distant computer capabilities and their implications.):
1. What is it that you can do that cannot be automated?
2. Is anyone going to pay you to do that?
3. Is it legal for them to pay you to do that?
4. What can you do that you want to do?
The last question is the most important because it has to do with that distinction between a job and a career. Jobs are what you either have to have or what you take because it's what's available. Careers are what you choose (unless you had high pressure parents who told you to become a lawyer) to do because you want to do it. A great career is the sort of thing where after you do it and then you get paid, you almost feel guilty for taking the money because you enjoyed it so much you would have done it for free. (There's a lot of professional speakers who secretly feel this way!)
There are two words, Vocation and Education, that you need to consider their Latin roots. Vocare means "a calling." Educare means "to draw out what is already there." The best sort of educational system is one that knows how to draw out and help develop in a person what is already there so that they are then able to hear their calling to do what they are supposed to do. My suspicion is that people with callings may get knocked down by automation from time to time, but they don't stay that way. Their calling won't let them stay down.
So when you call customer service, where are you calling and does it matter? As Marshall McLuhan had said, "When you're on the phone, you don't have a location." This article, Upwardly mobile phone jockey... or 'cyber-coolie'? in Canada's National Post tells of how India now has over 160,000 call center workers many of whom get training in various American accents and will watch American movies together so they can appropriately communicate with their callers.
As the author notes, he always asks where the call center person is located (as do I) but many are told not to say or to suggest they're in a place like Des Moines. Obviously it doesn't matter for most things, but I would suspect that the reason that they're not supposed to say is that it might give some more reasons to complain if they're not happy with the results of the call.
So can the concept of "help" or "customer service" be considered an export or an import? Do we export our problems and import our solutions?
Recently David Pogue of the New York Times wrote a column about dumb customer service stories and asked his readers to submit their own stories. This is what I submitted. It is completely true and the person I was speaking with clearly did not have English as a first language.
Here's my story:
Earlier this year I called a tech desk for some troubleshooting on a product that I had registered the year before, but couldn't remember my user ID. So the tech then said that he could provide the user ID for me but I had to answer my security question that I had provided at the time of registration. He then told me the question: "No question provided." and then he asked me what was the answer to that question.
I responded that this was not a question. He said, yes, that was the question and again asked me to answer it. I then explained that obviously I had not provided a question when I had registered, because "No question provided." was obviously not a question. He countered by saying that this was my question and that unless I provided the answer, he could not give me my user ID. In a rare flash of personal brilliance, I responded, "No answer provided." He then gave me my user ID.
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?
(Who guards the guardians?)
- Juvenal, Roman poet and satirist
Many of you have probably already seen this, but it's always good to have handy. Snopes is a website where you can verify - or not - all those emails and stories that float around the web and offices. In a world where "trust no one" is sound advice, it's successfully countered with "the truth is out there."
Per this story which I rec'd from my agent Bill Yardley today, Civilians give up their seats on commercial flight to soldiers on leave from Iraq the sender also included the fact that the Snopes site said it was true. Sort of like the Good Housekeeping seal of approval for the Internet?
FutureQuote:
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?
(Who guards the guardians?)
- Juvenal, Roman poet and satirist
Hmmm. There's a website, Miss Digital World, where they're looking for photos of beautiful women. Not flesh and blood types, but the digital ones. As in, only digital. As posted on the Reuters website, this site is looking for the world's most beautiful woman made up of pixels.
So where could they take this? When thinking about future forecasts, always play it Good, Bad and Wildcard. Of course there are some who are going to decry this as some sort of exploitation, others will definitely bookmark the "under construction" site to check back to see how much better entrants improve upon nature.
Then again, from a Wildcard POV, one has to ask about those who really don't have a life away from their computers (and I would bet that of those who have been living through their computers are mostly not what we think of as computer geeks, but rather average desk jockeys who put more effort into their jobs than their lives) and how will computers respond to those unmet needs? How realistic can these graphics become and how personalized? Could it be determined by advertisers exactly what your ideal digital demo dolly would look like and then create all advertisements featuring that person? When you consider how much bandwidth has been growing,
So will someone make a digital image that will be acclaimed by many to be the most beautiful woman in the world? Will there be
As a speaker who gets a bit put out when referred to as a "motivational speaker," I'm absolutely thrilled to motivate you to go to the website for the Demotivators! http://www.despair.com/
If you've ever gotten woozy when someone started spouting "There is no "I" in "team." or
In the continuing slide into human-machine interfacing, there's a product from Alertness Solutions that you can wear like a watch and it monitors physical activity.
It's making the press lately for ways to improve the (not so) healthy lifestyles of business travelers and includes some alertness tests that demonstrate how much we can slow down in our alertness when we have the road warrior lifestyles.
There are similar devices, such as SportBrain that's a pedometer with an online interface so you can monitor your daily walking and running. (I use this and like it.)
I keep thinking this is just the tip of the iceberg. Just think of all the personal data that can be monitored - for good rather than evil! - to either maintain or improve your health. There's a device called
Remember that ad with the little old lady who couldn't get up? Imagine Digital Angel's commercial will be a little old lady laying on the floor listen to the device telling her, "Mrs. Jones, you've fallen down and you can't get up. Don't try. We know you're in your kitchen, we're coming to get you. We'll be there in 7 minutes."
Just think, if you have elderly parents, you won't have to call them as often to check up on them...
The ethical consideration are both deep and wide. I am not completely worried about the loss of privacy regarding these types of devices. First of all, a lot of privacy is illusionary, but more important is our need to develop new tools and understandings of how privacy can work in an age where information needs to flow to those we want to have it.
When you are threatened by a smarter mouse, you have to build a smarter mouse trap. Those who believe that privacy will be forever lost have very little faith in human ability to build new things as well as a cynical belief in how things work out.
A man of courage flees forward, in the midst of new things.
- Jacques Maratain
It's got to be the biggest ego trip in the world to think we can reject thousands of years of history. - Richard Jenrette
This one is a few years old, but it's a good article for placing the war against terrorism into a broader historical context. The Last Totalitarians is an article by Brink Lindsey, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. My particular interest in this article is the notion of the battles against modernity, and in his words, "the root cause of the carnage lies in the radical discontent with modern industrial society."
What the terrorists are trying to do is an Industrial Counterrevolution. At some level one cannot blame them for their fanatic fear and reaction as their entire world seems to be dissolving in the face of science, freedom and a world seemingly without limits. If you find today daunting, imagine coming from a society rushing madly from the 12th century into the 20th, knowing full well that the 21st century is even more uncertain if not completely destructive to everything you believe to be true.
I would also recommend Escape from Freedom by Eric Fromm as well as The True Believer by Eric Hoffer.
The creation of value is the only true and everlasting source of profit.
- Matushi Yoshimura

Griffin Technologies is bringing out a device named Radio Shark, which does for radio what TIVO does to television. (If you don't know what TIVO is, you're missing the best thing to happen to TV since color. www.tivo.com) Working only with a Mac, it's a USB device that has a software interface for the fin shaped radio and antenna, allowing you to record, pause and store radio programs.
So when you want to reach for that rewind button on your radio, now you can. When you don't want to miss that favorite program on your public radio station (That's a shameless promotion for WUWM, Milwaukee Public Radio, where I'm on the Community Advisory Board) you don't have to miss it. Just program your computer to catch it and store it. You can also transfer the recording to a device like an iPod, or any other AIFF capable player.
I wonder what the legal issues are with this one.
The device is not yet released, but watch the site for updates. Expected price point is $69.00.
To sit alone in the lamplight with a book spread out before you, and
hold intimate converse with men of unseen generations--such is a
pleasure beyond compare. -Kenko Yoshida, essayist (1283-1352)
(This is cool. This quote was entered into the blog while sitting in the MSP airport via my bluetooth phone modem, wirelessly connected to my Mac laptop. Who says you need an office?)
For some reason, today seemed to be the day to get a bunch of quotes sent my way. For your intellectual amusement:
Comments from Socrates
Know Thyself
Ask Great Questions
Think for Yourself
Challenge Conventional Wisdom
Grow with Friends
Speak the Truth
Strengthen Your Soul.
My friend George Goetz also gave me this one, unattributed (I'll have to search for the source)
Beloved Pan and all you other gods abiding hereabouts
Grant that I may become handsome within
May I appear to be that which I am
May I regard wisdom as the only wealth
And my own wealth be no more than I can bear.
A few others given to me by Joe Schlidt
That which has been is what will be, that which is done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun. Ecclesiastes 1:9
There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know.
Harry S. Truman
There is no remembrance of former things, nor will there be any remembrance of things that are to come by those who will come after. Ecclesiastes 1:11
"This time is different" are among the most costly four words in market history.
Sir John Templeton
A group of investors, including Al Gore, are planning to launch what some are calling Al Gore TV, an all news channel specifically targeting the under 25 age group.
Fighting off the notion that this will be a liberal answer to Fox News, they've suggested that "Liberal TV is dead on arrival," and this will be more like a combo of CNN and MTV, both, of course, bastions of right-wing thinking...

The Christian Science Monitor has an article on A Tale of Cool Cities in its October 8th edition. It's all about how to make cities attractive to the young, cool and talented. Cities and their affiliated organizations are falling all over themselves to roll out the carpet, and dance floors, to make the youngsters feel welcome and cool in the process.
Here in this city we've got YPM: Young Professionals of Milwaukee. They're a few months over 2 years old and boast some 2200 members. A big part of their pitch is to play up how cool Milwaukee is. Their website, a subsection of the Metro Milwaukee Association of Commerce MMAC.org has lots of references to the cool lifestyles of the young and the busy. With over 50% of these members still single, it's quite interesting that it's never formally mentioned that a lot of them belong because it's one of the best chances they've got for meeting other professional singles. Maybe that wouldn't be "professional?"
Forbes Magazine also recently ran their Best Cities for Singles survey in their June 5th edition. (Milwaukee ranked 25th.)
This is all quite fascinating and I have to admit I wish there'd been something like YPM here in Milwaukee back when I was, in fact, a young professional. Now that I'm 46, it's both puzzling and amusing the way employers and chambers are playing to this crowd. It's both puzzling and amusing the way employers and chambers seem to have blanket assumptions about the middle-aged constituents and don't cater to them as much any more. Is it because we're not cool?
One of the lead characters for the "young professional" mantra is Richard Florida. The author of The Rise of the Creative Class, he promotes the 3 Ts: Talent, Tolerance and Technology. If you have these three in a community, your young people are more likely to stay. My suggestion is to add a fourth one: Tradition. The first three without the sense of continuity will not build a community. When they're tired of being cool, (and from what I can see from some distance...cool takes a lot of energy) if you don't offer something of more lasting value, you won't have the commitment to make the community actually work and thrive over time. Commitment may sound boring, but it gets the job done, repeatedly.
And, maybe that's my point. Most of these young professionals, despite their best efforts, are going to eventually find themselves as middle-aged professionals. The "young" part of "professional" is quite temporary. Do these cities need to give better attention to the youthful need for cool? Absolutely. Are they paying too much attention to fads, and not enough to principles? You bet. Scratch the surface of a young professional, and you'll find a middle-ager waiting to happen.
I once read that the biggest surprise that will ever happen in your life is old age. Middle age was a bit unexpected too.
Another thing I once read is that, when thinking about how the parents of youthful rebels eventually became more open and accepting of all the changes those rebels brought into modern society, what we had thought was wisdom was actually exhaustion. Whether talking about exhausted parents or exhausted organizations, the results are still the same.
A dead thing can go with the stream, but only a living thing can go against it.
Network analysis maps companies' informal structure.
Great article about how scientists at H-P have studied the flow of e-mail in organizations, revealing the real pathways of organization and power. It also suggests the way that informal information networks form organically.
You may need to register with Nature in order to access the article.
If you find this article interesting, you may also want to check out the two books listed below. Click on the blue title text links to read their reviews.
GPS spy technology from Internav
From Australia, technology that will help you track your kids via satellite. Is this a way to automate a way to show your concern?
Bet you never thought that P.E. classes would be something done via distance education. For busy students, this may become a team sport.

I recently gave the closing keynote at the Wisconsin Innovation Service Center's Ideas to Profits conference. As promised, here's the skeletal outline of the program in which I gave a list of 25 ideas that inventors might want to consider while they're busy inventing the future. If you weren't there, this outline might not make sense. If you were there, I hope it does!
Please email me if you have further questions or comments.
Wisconsin Innovation Service Center- Small Business Development Center
Inventing the Future by David Zach, futurist 10/4/03
A. We can't do it alone
1. Start smoking
OK, as the son of a radiologist and a nurse, the point is not to take up smoking, but it is to be like smokers and take breaks and talk to people other than those that work right next to you.
2. Start drinking
Start your day at a coffee shop and develop new relationships with people other than co-workers and family. Engage yourself in your community.
3. Start making connections
The wealth is in the connection. Our ability to connect people, things and ideas, especially if at first we didn't think they were connectable, that's how we create wealth. And, very importantly, wealth is that which you value, so it's not just dollars and cents, it's anything in your life that you value.
4. Talk to strangers
One of the biggest cultural mistakes we made in recent years is that strangers are dangerous and to be avoided. Most of the world is a stranger to you and most of them are probably fairly trustable. Strangers give us new perspectives.
*Future Quote: Hebrews 13:1-2
Be not forgetful to entertain strangers: for thereby some have entertained angels unawares.
B. Going back to school
(These are all stereotypes, but articulated to make a point about the different types of thinking that you need to navigate in today's world.)
5. B School (Business School) Thinking
Logical, linear. Best practices. Works great in times of stability.
*FutureQuote: Abraham Maslow
When the only tool you have is a hammer, then everything starts to look like a nail.
6. D School (Design School) Thinking
Non-logical, non-linear. Works great when you have new situations and don't yet know what your goal or prize is.
Most people can't stay in this sort of thinking very long.
*FutureQuote: Werner von Braun
Basic research is what I am doing when I don't know what I am doing.
7. R School (Real world School) Thinking
People take D School thinking (and its rewards) and eventually turn it into best practices and the new conservative thinking.
*FutureQuote: Philip K. Dick
Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.
C. Divide & conquer
8. Fads, trends & principles
Play with fads, work with trends, live by principles
D. Economics 101
9. Experiences
It's the Disneyfication of the world. Everything is being sold as an experience, so if you just have a product or a service, you're like to be just toast.
10. Attention
The most valuable commodity in the market today. Wherever your attention is, your money is likely to follow.
11. Happiness
It's no longer the right to pursue happiness. The economic culture now says you have a right to be happy. The way to become happy is to keep going through new experiences.
*FutureQuote: Eric Hoffer
You can never get enough of what you really don't need.
12. Attitude
This is the interface to the new economy. It's the filter to keep out all the appeals to capture your attention. Teenagers, who have the most attitude are the ones who really understand how this new economy works.
13. Think like a concierge
The concierge is the career model already existing which understand how to make this economy work for you.
14. Reinvent invention
From Ko Thi African Dance exporting choreography for Disney's Lion King, to the sale of driver license information, there's so much more to invent than just a tool or a thing. What are you not seeing that can be bought, sold or marketed?
*FutureQuote: Eden Philpotts
The universe is full of magical things, patiently waiting for our wits to grow sharper.
E. Tools
FutureQuote: Marshall McLuhan
First we shape our tools and then our tools shape us.
15. Good news, bad news
The good news is that computers are finally growing up. The bad news is that they're becoming teenagers.
*FutureQuote: Mitch Ratliffe
A computer lets you make more mistakes faster than any invention in human history, with the possible exception of handguns and tequila.
16. First we shape our tools and then our tools shape us.
17. Neil Postman's Questions
Postman says there are four questions to ask any time you want to bring in new technology.
1. What problem is this technology trying to solve?
2. Is that my problem?
3. By solving this problem, what new problems am I creating? (This is the most important one for inventors to consider)
4. Am I using the technology or is it using me?
18. New tools and new rules
When you make new tools, you have to develop new rules, otherwise the tools might rule.
F. How to find the future
FutureQuote: William Gibson
The future�s already here, it�s just not evenly distributed.
19. News vs. Olds
Today we're addicted to news. News is the stuff that's changed since yesterday that you may want to know in order to keep up with things and be successful. Old, by contrast, is the stuff that hasn't changed since yesterday that you may want to know in order to keep up and be successful. If you're not putting as much attention into Olds as News, you may be missing critical information.
Change is overrated. Sometimes it's the stuff that doesn't change over time that is most important.
20. Mavericks, artists, entrepreneurs, designers, inventors, explorers, writers, life-long learners
These are the types of people who help invent the future. Do you connect with them? What do people think about these sorts of people?
21. Failures, crackpots, weirdoes & the uncredentialed
One of our greatest freedoms is the freedom to fail - and try again. It suggests not only a faith in the future, but also a belief that because we don't know exactly how the future is going to work that we necessarily have to accept that failure often accompanies eventual success. When failure is forbidden, failure is certain.
22. Accountants, lawyers, engineers, politicians, reporters, friends, family, mega-corporations, society at large
These people may not invent the future, but often they're the ones who help to make it work - or prevent it from working. In your focus to invent things, you need to also develop the networks and communication skills to navigate successfully with these types of people.
G. If I were you, I would... (My closing bit of advice review)
23. Smoke.
Or rather, like smokers, take breaks and talk to both co-workers who don't sit near you as well strangers. You never know which stranger is going to be your next "angel."
24. Drink.
Start you day in the market place of ideas. Coffee shops or other "third places" are an essential part of community where you can spread your ideas and learn that there is, in fact, a world beyond your own.
25. Connect.
The wealth is in the connection. Actively look around your world with eyes wide open and find the people, things and ideas just waiting to be connected.
FutureQuote: Eden Philpotts
The universe is full of magical things, patiently waiting for our wits to grow sharper.
� David Zach, 2003. All rights reserved.
For more information of the work of David Zach, please visit www.davidzach.com. 414-278-0414

Original thinking strangled by bureaucracy
Interesting article about the resistance mill through which ideas are ground exceedingly small.

Here's the short history of computers.
In the first stage, they were Impersonal Computers. They were number machines. They were cold and harsh and cruel. They filled rooms. They were scary. The only people who had anything to do with computers at that time were engineers, accountants and actuaries. Why? Because they were cold and harsh and cruel.
Then they changed. They became smaller, friendlier and easier to use. It was the stage of Personal Computers. They showed up on our desks and in our homes. They became word machines. They allowed us to do such strategic things as store recipes and create strategic planning documents. As this stage continued into the early 1990s, most everybody who was anybody finally got the fact that they really were here to stay. Computers had indeed become personal.
Then we changed. Or rather, our children changed. They didn't have to unlearn horrible tragedies like DOS. They never had to live in a world where you could get a computer screen in any color as long as it was Green Phosphor. They didn't have to read instruction manuals.
In the mid 1990s, the Internet showed up and connected us and our computers with everybody and everyplace. Kids entered chat rooms to find friends who were not defined by location, but defined by access. Those same kids could be stalked in those chat rooms by their fellow 13 year olds who in real life might well be some 37 year old who, when he was on the Internet, nobody knew he was a dog.
This had become the age of the Interpersonal Computer. They were no longer just tools of numbers or words, they were tools to connect. It was not so much an age of information as it was an it was an age of communication, an age of connection. From chat rooms at our desktops, we've evolved to IMing on phones that are really computers and we spend more and more of our time with friends who really aren't there. But then I think it was Marshall McLuhan who said "when you're on the phone, you don't have a location."
Where do we go from here? What's next after Interpersonal Computers?
(You really weren't so naive as to think that computers are done growing up, did you? The good news is that computers really are growing up. The bad news is that their entering their teenage years.)
-- More in a future entry on the future stages of computers.
Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals...except the weasel.
Homer J. Simpson
Speaking of weasels, click here to vote in Dilbert's 2003 Weasel Awards. It's your chance to help pick this year's most deserving weasels...
Anyone can look for fashion in a boutique or history in a museum. The creative explorer looks for history in a hardware store and fashion in an airport.
Robert S. Wieder, journalist
Keep your eyes wide open before marriage, half shut afterwards.
Benjamin Franklin
Although today there are many trial marriages.... there is no such thing as a trial child.
Gail Sheehy
Be glad of life because it gives you the chance to love and to work and to play and to look up at the stars.
Henry van Dyke
If the stars should appear one night in a thousand years, how would men believe and adore.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.
Oscar Wilde
(see entry for this date in 1. Directions)
More on Nanotech.
www.urbandictonary.com
A site for the words that are new to this planet.
For those of you who don't know of G.K. Chesterton, he was one of the most prolific writers at the turn of the last century and well, continues to be quotable. Here's a website with a dose a day. Enjoy.

Last week I spoke to the Texas Benefit & Compensation Conference. Next door is a great museum with a new show, The Heroic Century, which is 200 of the painting and sculpture masterpieces from the Museum of Modern Art.
While standing in front of van Gogh's, The Starry Night, a young couple came over to view it as well, and I moved over to give them some space. They were obviously all wrapped up in each other, whispering, and very focused on the painting. Suddenly he turned, got down on one knee, opened a little box and asked her to marry him. (By this time, I've moved about five feet away, not that either one knew that anyone else was also at the museum that day.)
Well, she said yes, he slipped the ring on, they kissed, hugged and then spent the rest of their visit kissing, hugging and calling family and friends. I suspect they didn't see any other pieces of art there that day. I suspect they'll return.
It was very cool. They've anchored themselves to a beautiful piece of art and I'll never look at Starry Night again without smiling.
They're probably 19 years old. I wish them well on their starter marriage...
I'd rather be a failure at something I enjoy than a success at something I hate. George Burns (sent to me by my brother!)