Writing

Ideas: Everything Is Possible

Nothing can wait.
Nothing can last.
Nothing can satisfy.

No one can be unhappy.
No one can be judged.
No one can be trusted.

Nothing is hidden.
Nothing is certain.
Nothing is forbidden.

Everything is a need.
Everything is a choice.
Everything is possible.

_______________________

When I would talk about education or the necessity of the connection of generations across time, this poem emerged from my talks. I didn’t know it was a poem, but people kept asking to get a copy of the “poem.”

It’s said that the point of prose is to say what you mean, and the point of poetry is to not say what you mean. The title and the last line is to suggest that this is what we’ve always wanted, for everything to finally be possible. To throw off the shackles of the past and be genuinely free. A second glance at everything is possible, we see contradictions. A third glance and we see a future without limits, without boundaries, and without hope…

Emerging New York Architects Article: What’s Beneath the Future?

What’s Beneath the Future?

Once upon a time, educated people had minds that were trained to welcome questions that didn’t always have answers. They took the time to think not just about fads and trends, but about the longer term and even the eternal. In these modern times, we’ve lost much of that, too willingly seduced away from what lasts so we can be ready for what’s next. Maybe we’ve lost something that our ancestors never considered possible to lose. Maybe we should revive the art of wonder and rediscover the foundations of imagination and design. It’s fun and useful to wonder what’s just around the corner, but let us spare a little wonder for what’s just beneath those corners. Here are a few notions we might find if we dig.

1. Mystery

The future does not need to be all clean, bright and clear so that everyone has to be happy, above average and safe. Only in the smallest of futures could we do that. It would require us to eliminate risk, get rid of variety and worst of all, give up free will. Remove those, and you remove the mysteries that make for a life worth living.  

Mystery is risk. We don’t want to be rid of risk, we want to make it more attractive and progressive. This is not dismissing the safety of structures and communities, it is to take more thoughtful risk with choices, with design and with your own career. No one can know all the future of architecture, but progress will not come from just choosing to be open to change, it will come from intelligently choosing between change and tradition. The choices between those involve risk, but not as much risk as when only one side is blindly chosen and the other blindly condemned. Wrong choices are risky, but they are also opportunities for rediscovery and reinvention. The future should not be too predictable. The mystery of what’s just around the corner should be attractive, and the design of imaginative corners is something that architects can do best. 

2. Paradox

Architecture is paradox. Form and function. Art and science. Strength and beauty. Bottom-line and horizon. Paradox is when two mutually exclusive things more than co-exist, they embrace and with great design, they even dance.

When one side denies the other, you get gawdawful architecture. Without horizons, multiple-point perspective is not possible. Without strength, beauty is too vulnerable. Without art, science threatens. Without science, art is dull. We need both sides, and architects are the best trained to find and bind the connections between them.  

Explore, protect and cherish architectural paradoxes. Know that the ability to work with paradox can never be automated and is one of the keys for opening the future of this profession. Fall in love with paradox and it will return the favor –and we will love the results. 

3. Inclusive

There’s an old saying that never grows old: “Nothing about us, without us, is for us.” Just as you would protest a future of architecture decided without you, do not design any futures for others without them.

George Bernard Shaw said, “All professions are a conspiracy against the laity.” Architects should always side with the laity, despite the obvious fact that design would be a lot easier without them. It’s not that they don’t know what they’re talking about, it’s that you’re too often failing to explain design in terms they can easily understand. Customers are now co-workers, so much more of our education budget needs to include them and not stay focused on the inside of the profession. This should be the age of design, but not if you cannot explain design with eloquence and elegance to the people who need it the most.

4. Revolution

This is the scary (not so) secret of architecture today. Change has been a constant in architecture for the past 30 years, but it has all been prelude. Now the real show begins. Old boundaries are falling and it will take with it old-boundary architects, some of whom will be even the youngest of architects. This revolution has nothing to do with age, degree or license, it has to do with your vitality of mind and your ability not simply to adapt to change, but your ability when necessary to restore and stand upon foundation. 

Revolution can be renaissance, or it can be surrender. Quit without a fight and architecture will be downsourced into a hodgepodge of apps. Fight the good fight and it becomes what it should be – an occupation of all occupations. A vocation connecting to everything, everyplace, every time. If you do revolution right, the world of design will be much bigger than anyone ever imagined. Do it wrong, the role of architects will be much smaller than you ever feared. 

You could really screw this up and go down in flame and shame. But here’s the exciting (not so) secret of all this: the young architects of today are better trained, better educated, and better prepared than most any other occupation to face these times. This is an age of design and you are designers. 

5. Foundations

And this is what connects that which is beneath with all that is above: Your philosophy matters more than your plans. The “whys” of architecture are more important than the “hows.” Beneath every plan there must be a foundation. The bigger your plans, the greater need for foundation. Every architect knows that, but they’re being too distracted to recall that it also applies to life.

This is vastly counterintuitive to modern times. Today it’s all about the tool; all about the next big thing that you can do. It’s always about thinking forward without thinking back. GK Chesterton said, “We are learning to do a great many clever things. The next great task will be to learn not to do them.” You can only make good decisions for the long term if you have deep foundations. Resist seduction. Find your foundations. Foundations first, then plans for a future that can be as big and great as you choose to design it. 

_______________________

This article was written for ENYA: Emerging New York Architects and their conference: The Future Now… David Zach is a Futurist and on the board of the American Institute of Architects. He loves architecture. He remains ever hopeful about architects.

Vintage Illustration of Boy at Losing Game

The Future’s Just Not That Into You: Design Intelligence article

A version of this article was first published in Design Intelligence in 2012, written for young design professionals on meeting the future on their own terms.

The Future’s Just Not That Into You

It’s time to admit that you’ve got a problem. Your obsession with the future is getting out of hand. You keep going on about how you were made for each other. You even change your plans because it’s what you think the future wants. But no matter, you just know you’re going to be perfect together.

Um, no. In case you haven’t noticed, the future pretty much ignores you. And, let’s be honest, you know it’s never going to call. It’ll never stop by unannounced. It’s not even going to meet you halfway.

Really, it’s almost as if the future didn’t even know you exist — and in practical terms, it doesn’t. It’s also practical to realize that it’s got its own issues, its own people, its own problems. By the time just even a little bit of the future happens,  we’ll be dead and long gone. And so it’s not the future you need to worry about, it’s you. Your attention is misplaced. You’re needed in the here and now. You need to show up fully prepared to be no place else. The object of your affection should be today.

And today, with all this fear and doubt about your architectural education, maybe your first assignment hasn’t even happened yet. Maybe it’s happening right now. What if it’s to show the future what you’re really made of? If the future won’t come to you, you will have to go to the future. Here are a few ideas on how to meet the future on your own terms.

1. Entrepreneurial wealth creation. In case no one noticed, tomorrow is expensive. Very expensive. We can’t possible afford even a fraction of what we’re expecting unless we create vast new wealth. Not just redistributed, but baby-fresh wealth that’s far more than just money. Whatever has value, we need more of; from working friendships to logistical networks. From 3-D printers to apps that automate everyday tasks. From green buildings to blue-sky thinking. More needs to be much more.

You need to realize how incredibly easy it is to an entrepreneur today. Business plans are just a few clicks away and can cost nothing. Take a look at websites like kickstarter.com, where the marketplace of ideas now reaches the entire Internet-accessing world. Steven Johnson in Where Good Ideas Come From makes clear that we’ve become incredibly good at invention, and that’s being systematized by the big organizations. What’s not yet clear is that individuals can leverage all of that innovative infrastructure to their singular or small network advantage.

Explore and expand the notion of “pop-up businesses” and find that time is on your side, using the new tools to respond to marketplace trends. In the future, businesses lasting a few months may be more successful and productive than ones that last for decades. Use 3-D printers and other new maker tech for a leap-frog revival of localized factories and the reinvention of architecture. Apply your fresh knowledge of logistics and design to bring new life to the great big marketplace of ideas.

The future is going to require a fair amount of blood, tears, toil and duct tape to hold together and work. It’ll have you digging in the dirt and working in the dust and grease, and some of that will get under your nails. Your knuckles will get bruised. That might have once repelled you, but in Future 2.0, these will be a badges of honor. Band-aids are for the brave.

Most think that entrepreneurs are all about success, but they’re a lot about failure, too, and they’re not afraid of it. The freedom to fail is much more important than the freedom to succeed. Where you have the freedom to succeed, the pathways are often already laid out, but the path and rewards are banal. Where we have the freedom to fail, we have the encouraging freedom to try new things, to often fail, and then pick ourselves up and try again. And again. And again. Until it works. That’s how it works.

2. Life-work planning. That was the best course I took in college. It taught me peak-skills identification and how to explain the value of my mix and match skills to the marketplace. In the years to come, even if you call yourself an architect (I mean, it is a cool title and all), you’re going to need to be eloquent about your full spectrum of skills and even your skill gaps. Your collaborative skills will be essential for helping you to fill those gaps with the talent of coworkers.

3. Small is still beautiful. A brilliant retort to the age of just about everything being bigger is to be a bit smaller. Think local. Think sooner rather than later. Think yours, not everyone else’s. There’s an appropriateness of scale that gets lost in the gloss of globalization. Search for resources that will help you secure your own familiar and familial piece of the world. The Lt. Governor of Idaho, Brad Little, said “Small ideas are as important as big ideas.” Yes, please. What’s the big idea for your generation? How about a lot of small, livable ideas? Your generation of small ideas may do more for designing a viable future than so many of the big ideas we’ve been keeping on financial life support. Fight the notion of things being too big to fail, because that arrogance requires too many other things to be too small to succeed. All great things start small.

Some things are great because they stay small — and that’s just one more great thing about who we are and what we can do.

Surveys show that the millennials want meaningful work, which is often translated into the desire to change the world. That’s big and noble, but how do they know that all of their efforts to do good won’t converge into an even bigger world of hurt? What are the foundations of their world-changing ambitions? Are they seeing only obvious implications, but not the implications of the implications that echo from their source and cannot be predicted nor controlled? MIlton Friedman said “The power to do good is also the power to do harm.” Perhaps in the desire to think big, efforts should start small, grounded in time-test principles and with the near and the dear.

How about starting a little closer to little? If you don’t have the patience to change (and keep changing) a baby’s diaper, how can you expect to change the world? Change cannot be isolated. Everything has consequences and when you connect those beyond just their first effects, your choices will be more clear and realistic. David Frost said, “Love is staying up all night with a sick child — or a healthy adult.” The good life includes accepting and loving all of it, because life comes with happiness and tears, and all the choices and changes these must bring. It’s fantastic that you want to save the world. Start with your own smaller world first. Make your inevitable mistakes small and early, not too big and too late.

4. Amateur practice. In the heart of a good architect is the soul of an amateur. The “ama” in that word means “love.” It’s the love of the art and craft. This love will save the future of the occupation and perhaps even the future at large. If that’s not in you, go slowly retire somewhere else.

Despite all the rules and rulers, you should always be a bit of an amateur, in love with design. It’s what gets you up in the morning and it’s what keeps you awake at night. And this is key: you didn’t just choose architecture because you thought it was what the future wanted. It is what you needed, it’s what you can’t live without. I always admire the architects who can hear the vocāre; the calling. You were able to hear it telling you what you must become. Very few can hear such gifts, and you must cherish it.

The day after speaking at AIAS Forum 2010, three student architects and I talked and walked to the Ontario Gallery of Art. Upon looking into the OGA’s Gehry Staircase gallery, they forgot me. In awe, they began to draw. In awe, I watched them. From outside of your world looking in, I see not simply rare talent, but rare passion and the heart of an amateur. This will save the profession no matter where it goes. It must be continually nurtured and regarded. It is too easily overwhelmed in the rush of modern times. What you have and what you are is drawn from the center of life.

5. Think into other boxes. The best thing that ever to happen to architecture and architects is the current dearth of jobs. It didn’t just happen because the economy turned down, it’s because the profession turned down. It got boring. It didn’t know how to defend itself against regulations, automation and cross-boundary poaching. It became more worried about being cool and collected than in creating the beautiful and useful. Every profession is stumbling into the future. The fact it’s happening more in architecture is a great opportunity, terrifying as it may be.

So think into those other bewildered occupations. Start mergers. Start acquisitions. Don’t do it as if you were Wall Street barons. You’re not. Do it as if you’re architects on the adventure of a lifetime, designing new challenges, crafting new stories and wonders. As the barriers blur between graphics and facades, redesign the walls and portals between them. Tear down the delusion of believing the borders of architecture are set and known. It may have foundations set in stone, but the rules for what we will build above them are now being negotiated across all boundaries. GK Chesterton said, “There are no rules of architecture for a castle in the clouds.” Which rules will we design for those we build on the ground?

6. Engage the past. Advanced economies are sadly absurd for actively discarding their elders. The younger those discards are, the more absurd it is. The divorcing of the generations and segregating them into their own self-referential worlds feeds our ignorance and arrogance. Wealth comes from connecting things, and we have impoverished ourselves by breaking and hiding such natural and lively bonds.

But as Sir Boyle Roche asked, “Why should we do anything for posterity; what has posterity ever done for us?” A good answer is that posterity always gives those who are older not only a reason to live, but reasons to invest, to strive, to conquer fears and conquer horizons. Generational bonds give us opportunities to share not just the delightful moments, but also foundations so that posterity does not have to keep repeating what it should not. Posterity doesn’t need our fads, it needs the continuity of our principles. We shouldn’t just connect them towards what is the latest, but towards what is almost too late. Progress from the past does not always mean leaving things behind us, it also means leaving things inside of us.

7. Put work in its place. The most foolish of all baby boomer legacies is the worship of work. They wanted everyone else to believe that work was at the center of life. No, life is at the center of life. Work is good; it’s good for the soul, but it is not the only thing good for the soul. And if it’s even slightly possible that we do in fact have souls, then we should be fighting the good fight to ensure that there are good things that compose it.

You’ll have to work to rethink what we know about work and life from an architect’s perspective. You should work hard to turn the ordinary over to the engineers and the general contractors or whomever else might want it. Don’t work for the stuff that ends up just looking like technical drawings. That’s not what architects are supposed to do.

Design and build beautiful, useful things that connect us into life in this world. If you can’t do that, then why bother? You’re architects and you have something incredible to say about designing good tomorrows. You’ll take some heat for working for all of that, but you’ll finally know what it really is to be cool.

In a word, you must rebel. You must focus your attention on what’s most important, both for now and for the years to come. Your attention is the most valuable resource you own, so learn to protect that first or you will fail in all else. Your rebellion requires not only a working knowledge of tactics and strategies, but also a very grounded sense of mission and vision.

You’re going to have to commit the high crime of closing your mind, but you’ll be closing it around something solid, something good. It will not have to be fresh and original, but it will have to be noble, fierce and timeless. It will not have to be unique and fresh, it have to be connected and rooted. You will need to rebel against the distractions of momentary history and ally yourself with the calm and eternal.

In Latin there is a phrase: amor fati. It means to love your fate; accepting the fact of all of your life. The joys, the losses, the choices. You do not get to choose all of your life, but you can choose your destination. Live your fate to your greatest conclusion. That is all the future really wants from you. You should enjoy the dangers and the rewards, even the failings. It’s going to be crazy scary, and it is yours.

In Star Trek Generations, Picard pulls Kirk out of retirement to join forces as fate offers yet another threat to the survival of just about everything. Kirk to Pickard, “I take it the odds are against us and the situation is grim.” Pickard: “You could say that.” Speaking of the future, Kirk replied, “Sounds like fun.”

 

Divide Your Attention Into Fads, Trends, or Principles

When looking around your world with an eye towards the future, try to divide what you see into a fad, a trend, or a principle. A simple way of having that sense of that division between them is to play with fads, work with trends, and live by principles. Of course, that’s easier said than done because too often we’re seduced by fads, ignorant of trends and resistant to principles. Related to a sense of time, fads are momentary, trends are transforming, and principles are eternal.

FADS

Fads are like spice. You just need just enough to add flavor and flair to life. Fads are about being in the moment, particularly to enjoy that moment. In that sense, fads are very nice because they are very human. Fads can ruin things if they take too much of your time and attention, are seen as truth, or if a fad is embraced as a lifestyle. When fads are put in their proper perspective with trends and principles, fads are great.

Because of our economic and social obsession with trends, it’s not really surprising that there’s an almost equal and opposite reaction in our current obsession with fads. Too much of anything will cause a reaction towards the opposite direction. Even worse, we often are fooled into thinking that fads are really trends. Fads are marketed as the next trend of the future, oddly one right after another. Fads like to tell you’re they’re trends, so you’ll pay more attention. But fads don’t last.

You can never get enough of what you really don’t need. Eric Hoffer

Fads are about attention, which is the most valuable resource in the economy today. If your attention can be captured and held, everything else will follow. People who start or lead fads are all about capturing that attention for profit or power. Why would you embrace a fad if no one else notices? In an attention-based economy, fads are lucrative because of the constant turnover of what’s cool. If you’re selling what’s cool, you can’t rely on old inventory, it has to move fast and be replaced just as quickly. Fads often go with adolescence– to do something different, to be bored with the same old thing, especially when the culture and economy join forces to help convince you that new is better, and old is, well, old. Fads help adolescents challenge authority.

There is nothing culturally more subversive than the modern commerce of quick turnover in ideas. Philip Rieff

Fads can give the illusion of progress. They’re anchors that stop movement, except when it’s to move away from whatever is expected of you and rejecting what’s already in place. Fads are less about creativity than they are about reaction. Art and artists are often quick to reject the traditional in favor of their new visions because nowadays that’s what sells as good art. That attitude has spread into business and culture, though they would be the first to deny it. Fads pretend to be trends.

To do just the opposite is also a form of imitation. Georg Christoph Lichtenberg

We should play with fads because they can be fun and help us to enjoy life. From styles of clothing to styles of culture, they are about being in the moment of life and reveling in being alive. Just keep them in perspective.

We should thank God for beer and burgundy by not drinking too much of either. G. K. Chesterton

Do you have enough fads in your life so that you’re not boring? Do you have so many fads in your life that you’re irrelevant? Just like with spice, enjoy them but if you use too much, you might spoil things.

TRENDS

Trends are about movement and transformation over time. Fads are like the waves on the water, they rock the boat and thereby capture our immediate attention. Trends are like the currents which move the boat. Currents are more difficult to perceive, but are far more powerful. One is able to navigate by learning more about the depth and direction of currents and stop obsessing about what just on the surface.

Trends are more adult-like because they take longer-term attention to notice. They often involve a sense of investment, whether that is with a long-term stock, the growth or decline of a company or even the way that we invest in the rearing of children. They take time and if we reacted to every little change with our investments, we cause more harm than good. There’s also a sense of delayed gratification with investment in trends. Fads are about today, trends are all about what comes after today.

We work with trends because that’s where our efforts will do the most good – long-term thinking applied to the notion of leveraging our resources and efforts to multiply the outcome. If you can pull some fads in to help achieve this goal, trends can work even better.

I don’t set trends. I just find out what they are and I exploit them. Dick Clark

PRINCIPLES

Principles are about the eternal. Things that don’t change, shouldn’t change, can’t change. These are difficult to defend in an age where too many loud people insist that there are no eternals, there are no truths. I believe it is truth to say that they are wrong.

Those are my principles. If you don’t like them, I have others. Groucho Marx

This is not to say that principles are absolute. The fact is that they ebb and flow and interact with other principles. In some eras, some principles are more regarded than in other eras. For instance, ask yourself which is more important, freedom or equality? You’ll probably have an answer, but you can easily find someone who will disagree with you. This is because freedom and equality are both principles. They are both true at the same time and yet they are opposites. It’s a paradox, and a delightful one at that.

There are times when freedom is more important and other times when equality is favored. Freedom without equality would be a jungle, equality without freedom would be tyranny. Both sides are equally important even if they do ebb and flow over time, mostly because we as flawed, imperfect humans can’t quite grasp how to keep them in balance. The graphic above showing the scales of justice support that notion that an equilibrium must be found in the midst of all the contending forces.

For freedom and equality are sworn and everlasting enemies, and when one prevails, the other dies. Will & Ariel Durant

Just as fads anchor you to a moment in time and trends cross time, principles free you from time. Principles are not simply about this time, they are about all time, they transcend time. We can have the sense of principles being more elder-oriented because for too many of us, we don’t seem to appreciate them until we’ve grown tired of everything else that competes with them.

We grow conservative as we grow old it is true. But we do not grow conservative because we find so many new things spurious. We grow conservative because we find so many old things genuine. G. K. Chesterton

FADS, TRENDS AND PRINCIPLES IN THE MODERN WORLD

Fads are about attention.

Given the vague statistic that the average person today encounters several thousand advertising messages a day, your ability to get your message through depends a lot on knowing which fads are capturing attention in this moment. When you’re trying to gain the attention of a younger person, be that your child or your new worker, are you able to use the right words, images and metaphors that work with them, without trying to be just like them? It’s not a fad that younger generations easily see and reject older generations efforts to manipulate.

Trends are about intention.

Which trends do you follow? Which do you ignore? Once you know about a trend, you need to form an opinion about whether it is useful. Which fads can you use to pull others into either supporting or resisting a trend? In navigating current trends, have a sense of direction and endurance so you can anticipate how to use it in your favor.

Have an understanding of both investment and delayed gratification with trends. Because trends take time, one has to have a sense of the endgame — where is this trend likely to lead us five, ten, even fifty years into the future? In the advanced economies, we have been so seduced by the short-term and quarterly results that we are quite fad-like in our planning. Older cultures might teach us about having a much longer sense of time. Our own history, in terms of what we have forgotten or choose to ignore, can also teach about the value of long-term trends.

Principles are about truth.

Imagine that you were asked to begin a document with the words, “We hold these truths to be self-evident…“ how might you finish that sentence? How might you finish the entire document to declare what it is that you believe? Do you believe that anything is true– that truth even exists– or do you believe that everything is relative and one so-called truth is as good as another?

In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principles, stand like a rock.  Thomas Jefferson

Unlike fads, which have tremendous marketing budgets behind them, principles are often left on their own and are not as easy to understand such that we easily are distracted from them in the day-to-day, busy world. In this world, the spoils go to the distractors— those best able to grab and hold your attention, and thereby gain access to your money— are the ones who get the gold and get to rule.

Only intuition can protect us from the most dangerous individual of all, the articulate incompetent. Robert Bernstein

Not all principles are to be equally valued, just like not all change is forward. The great struggle of our age is to define what should change and what should stay the same. It’s often said that in the future we’ll need more science and math in order to compete in the global economy. That’s true. What is even more true is that if we are to thrive in the future, we will need to study more philosophy, theology, history and biography. Science cannot tell us why we are here and what is the purpose of life. These four subjects may not be able to answer such questions either, but at least they lead us in that direction and that’s a good foundation from which to start.

Knowledge is power, but only wisdom is liberty. Will Durant

Fads, trends and principles can be used as lenses through which to look at what’s going on around you. They are not always distinct from each other, as there’s often a little bit of principle inside of a fad. Trends are often revealed first through the fads that show up in a culture or an economy. Principles are often obscured by the modern obsession with both fads and trends, and the popular naiveté that say principles either don’t exist or shouldn’t…

Simply put, we should play with fads, work with trends and live by principles.

Vintage postcard image of woman with telegraph key

Think Like a Futurist Article

Past, Present & Future.

Obsession with the future is just as unhealthy as being fixed on the past. Spread out your thinking – think in panoramic time – past, present and future. Leaving the past out of your thinking is like ignoring half your tools. Too much focus on the future is to live in fantasy without the respect due to those in the present.

Think Implications of Implications of Implications…

The easiest way to be a futurist is to build this question into your thinking: What are the implications of the implications of the implications…? Not that you can know, but just setting your mind towards implications takes you beyond just solutions thinking into the possibility of wisdom in your choices. The law of unintended consequences still holds. You can stop at three or keep asking that question. The point is not to precisely predict the future as much as it is to at least consider more possibilities than the obvious or expected.

Beware the Prophet motive!

Whenever you hear a forecast about the future be sure to ask: Is there’s a profit motive behind the prophet motive? If we do what they say, do they get rich, do they gain power? If the answer is yes, then you should be cautious. Follow the money is wise advice, no matter how selfless the forecasts (and forecasters) may seem to be.

Never trust pessimistic forecasts from people who make a living selling more government. Dick Armey

I’ve gone into hundreds of fortune tellers’ parlors and have been told thousands of things, but nobody ever told me that I was a police woman getting ready to arrest them. New York City Detective, 1963

Think possible futures, probable futures, preferable futures and plausible futures.

Don’t think in terms of singular forecasts that are absolute. Don’t be constrained by what’s realistic. If we stuck to that, we’d still be in the caves and bushes wondering whether that newfangled thing called fire is really plausible. Better do a study and hire consultants…

Think of multiple futures.

There’s not just one future, because there are billions of people in lots of different situations. Your actual mileage may differ. This bring in the value of scenarios – crafting a variety of stories of how things might turn out, based upon any variety of possibilities and impossibilities. In the words of cyberpunk author William Gibson, “The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed.”

We overestimate what we can do in one year and underestimate what we can do in five years.

Lots of times there are early forecasts of what the future is going to be like and when that falls short, people will discount the entire notion. Meanwhile, others who were closely watching the first efforts learned from the mistakes and are trying again. Early pessimists are not long-term thinkers.

What’s missing?

In all your searching for what’s happening next, you’re going to miss something. So, what are you not seeing? Look for the hole. What’s not here? Who’s not here? How have you been fooling yourself? To be certain, mistakes will continue to be made. Who will get the blame, who will get the credit?

Watch for monkeywrenches.

These are the sort of thing that get tossed into the mix that can completely disrupt the path the future was on. Say, 9/11 for example. Or microchips. Or immigration. 3D Printing and nanotech. Crypto too. Everyone resists change, especially those who want it but only in pre-defined parameters. It’s the ability to deal successfully with what is not expected that measure true adaptability.

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